Taking the Pulse of Sick Dictators

By THE IRRAWADDY

It is always interesting to follow and watch news about dictators.

Now we’re reading and studying reports that North Korean’s leader, Kim Jong-il, is believed to be seriously ill, with US American officials even claiming that he has suffered a stroke.

Of course, North Korean officials have denied the reports. One senior North Korean diplomat was quoted by Japan’s Kyodo news agency as saying:
“We see such reports as not only worthless, but rather as a conspiracy plot.”

The international community and concerned governments naturally keep a watch on the health of dictators, particularly leaders of nuclear states such as Kim Jong-il. If they fall, their departure is likely to create chaotic power struggles, uprisings and possibly change.

The current reports arose after Kim Jong-il failed to attend a parade marking the 60th anniversary of the founding of North Korea. There is no clear indication of who would succeed him if he did disappear from the scene.

In January 2007, Burma’s paramount leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe failed to appear at an Independence Day dinner reception in January, leading to speculation that he was seriously ill and on the verge of death.

Than Shwe—whose age is put at 76—did, in fact, travel to Singapore for medical treatment, but he appears to be still in good shape. This year, he received several state visitors, including Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who went to Burma to discuss the cyclone disaster and relief efforts.

Nevertheless, rumors about Than Shwe’s health continue to circulate.

Although he and Kim Jong-il have never met, they share a striking number of characteristics.

They are both unpredictable. They keep their countries in isolation, their citizens in poverty and they are distrustful of foreigners and dismissive of international opinion. They both keep their countries’ military strong and united. And the countries under their leadership are both “outposts of tyranny.”

Intelligence sources in Burma suggest that Than Shwe admires North Korea—as well as Cuba—recommending them to his subordinates as lessons in how to survive under pressure from the West.

Shunned by western governments, Than Shwe has no qualms about embracing North Korea. Under his regime, Burma has renewed diplomatic ties with Pyongyang.

In April 2007, the two countries signed an agreement to resume diplomatic ties during a visit by North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Yong Il.

Burma severed its diplomatic ties with North Korea in 1983 after a bomb attack in Rangoon by North Korean terrorists during a visit by a South Korean delegation headed by then-President Chun Doo-hwan.

However, clandestine contacts between the two countries were re-established several years ago as Burma stepped up its search for sources of conventional weapons.

North Korean agents were often spotted in Rangoon and Naypyidaw, and dissident sources claimed that Burma sought help from North Korea to build a tunnel under the new capital.

North Korea was also involved in some bizarre events in recent years.

Last year, a cargo freighter from North Korea docked in Burma in what was believed to be the first port call by a North Korean ship since the two countries agreed to resume diplomatic relations.

In April, 2007, the Kang Nam I docked at Thilawa port, 30 km south of Rangoon, seeking shelter from a storm— or so ran the official explanation for its presence.

It wasn't the first time a North Korean ship reported running into trouble in Burmese waters.

By a strange coincidence, a North Korean cargo ship in distress anchored at a Burmese port in November 2006, and the government reported that an on-board inspection had "found no suspicious material or military equipment." But journalists and embassies in Rangoon were skeptical.

In July 2006, a dissident source told The Irrawaddy that a North Korean ship carrying a senior Korean nuclear technology expert, Maj Hon Kil Dong, had arrived in Rangoon with a biological and nuclear package.

Western analysts and intelligence sources quickly dismissed this report but conceded it was possible that Burma would seek conventional arms and technology rather than high-tech long-range missiles from Pyongyang.

Than Shwe and his hardliners are still interested in developing a nuclear reactor bought from Russia. It is not known whether the reactor is for civilian or military purposes, and news about this development remains hidden behind a veil of secrecy.

Burmese officials have said the 10MW light-water reactor employs 20 percent enriched uranium-235 and involves an activation analysis laboratory, a medical isotope production laboratory, silicon doping system, nuclear waste treatment and burial facilities.

It is hard to gauge Burma’s real nuclear ambition but its shady relationship with North Korea has fuelled speculation and growing skepticism.

Than Shwe and Kim Jong-il are birds of a feather, and it’s hoped that once they leave the scene things will be better for Burma and North Korea. Certainly the people of both countries deserve better leadership.