Burma Watches Thai Politics

By AUNG ZAW

Thailand’s constitutional court removed Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej from office on Wednesday for receiving money for hosting two cooking shows on commercial television. His Burmese friends in Naypyidaw, including Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein, will certainly recall Samak’s culinary skills, as he once cooked for them during an official visit to Bangkok.

Burmese citizens are closely following the news of Samak’s downfall and Thailand’s continuing political turmoil in spite of heavy censorship by the regime. Local papers in Rangoon have been told not to cover the rallies and protests in Bangkok.

The Burmese community in exile is also closely monitoring Thai politics.

Shortwave radio stations broadcasting in Burmese have provided extensive coverage of the ongoing political drama in Thailand. They have paid particular attention to the stance taken by the Royal Thai Army amid the massive demonstrations in the capital and the occasional clashes on the streets.

The question on everyone’s mind: Will the threat of violence trigger another coup, or will Thailand’s longstanding culture of compromise ultimately prevail?

Burmese activists can’t help but think of how a similar standoff almost exactly a year ago played out on the streets of Rangoon and other cities in Burma. True to form, the Burmese junta settled the matter using brute force, killing dozens of protesters and arresting thousands more.

As many of my colleagues have remarked, scenes like the ones we’ve witnessed in Bangkok these past few weeks would not last more than a few days in Burma before everything was restored to “normal.”

Many Burmese democrats both inside and outside the country have hailed the Thai court’s decision against Samak. But Snr-Gen Than Shwe, the Burmese regime’s supreme leader, is probably not too pleased by this turn of events.

Samak, like other Thai prime ministers before him, is among the Burmese regime’s most outspoken supporters. For many Burmese, the willingness of Thai leaders to embrace Burma’s brutal rulers is a blemish on Thailand’s modern history. Indeed, many compare it to the sacking of the ancient Thai capital of Ayutthaya by the Burmese—something that many Thais still consider unforgivable.

Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, Thaksin Shinawatra and Samak—all have shamelessly slammed Burma’s democratic forces, ridiculed detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi and faithfully defended the Than Shwe regime.

Soon after taking power earlier this year, Samak visited Burma and returned gushing about the country’s good-hearted rulers. The Burmese generals are “Buddhists … they meditate,” he famously remarked. He added: “Burma is a peaceful country.”

An editorial in the Bangkok-based English-language daily, The Nation, described Samak’s comments as evidence of “Thailand’s naiveté and its leader’s foul mouth.”

Unfortunately, Samak has not yet learned to watch his mouth. When the UN Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari was in Bangkok recently following an unsuccessful trip to Burma, Samak told him to ignore democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, calling her a tool of the West. His remark drew anger from Burmese around the world, who staged protests in front of Thai embassies.

But if Samak and other Thai politicians think that their obnoxious views on Burma will win them true friendship with the country’s military leaders, they are dead wrong.

Senior intelligence officers who worked for Than Shwe and former intelligence chief Gen Khin Nyunt recently revealed the Burmese generals’ low opinion of Thai leaders.

After meeting with high-level Thai delegations, including those led by Samak, Chavalit and Thaksin, Than Shwe and other senior leaders routinely ridiculed their visitors, said the intelligence sources.

Than Shwe often boasted to his subordinates that Thai politics was easy to influence: All Burma had to do was control border trade. He clearly saw that Thai leaders were always ready to put personal greed before national interest.

Indeed, Thailand’s relations with Burma since the current regime seized power in 1988 have often cast the Kingdom in an unflattering light.

From the time of late Prime Minister Chatchai Choonhavan to the current Thai government, Bangkok has pursued a policy of “constructive engagement” with Burma. Only during the two terms of former Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai has Thailand’s Burma policy been guided by principles other than economic self-interest.

When Thaksin Shinawatra became the Thai prime minister in 2001, relations between Bangkok and the Burmese regime became closer than ever. The billionaire premier, who is now living in exile in London, moved quickly to make new deals in Burma, while Burmese living along the border and in the Kingdom came under intense pressure.

Now that Thaksin and his proxy Samak find themselves on the defensive, the generals in Naypyidaw may be feeling less certain about their influence in Thailand, even if their grip on Burma remains as strong as ever.

But the situation in Thailand is still far from resolved, and there may be reason for the Burmese generals to believe that Samak will soon be back to put in a good word for them with the rest of the world.

Whatever happens in Thailand, it is clear that the country cannot afford to follow the example of the regime in Naypyidaw and settle its political differences through violence. While Burmese are watching Thailand, Thais would do well to watch Burma and remind themselves of the value of democracy.