Than Shwe’s Gambit

By AUNG ZAW

The surprise release of a number of prominent political prisoners on Tuesday, including one of Burma’s most famous detained dissidents, Win Tin, has many political pundits asking if the country’s supreme leader, Snr-Gen Than Shwe, is finally ready to make further concessions to placate his international critics.

It was not lost on anybody that the move came just as world leaders were gathering in New York to attend the United Nations General Assembly. The Burmese junta has often been censured by the world body for its egregious abuses, and it knows that the only way it can get itself off the hot seat is by taking some of the heat off of its domestic opponents.

But even as Than Shwe was giving the order to release some 9,002 prisoners (just a few of whom were political detainees), his goons were rounding up other dissidents. Just two weeks ago, they finally caught one of their most wanted: activist Nilar Thein, who had been in hiding for more than a year, separated from her 16-month-old daughter and imprisoned husband because of her role in last year’s protests.

The release of Win Tin and a handful of other political prisoners is welcome news, but it isn’t going to change the image of the Burmese regime, which still holds more than 2,000 pro-democracy activists and political leaders in its prisons.

If Than Shwe wants to show the world that he is sincere about improving Burma’s repressive political climate, he should set a timeframe for the release all of these prisoners and make his seven-step political “road map” more inclusive. But don’t expect that to happen anytime soon.

To understand what the regime is trying to achieve with this latest conciliatory gesture, we need to put it into the context of the junta’s long-term game plan, which is to advance the road map by making it seem more credible in the eyes of the international community.

The state-run newspaper, The New Light of Myanmar, hinted at this objective when it announced the “amnesty,” saying that the release of the prisoners would “enable them to serve the interests of the regions and … the fair election to be held in 2010 … after realizing the government’s loving kindness and goodwill.”

Besides trying to win support for the planned election, the regime may also be obliquely responding to the demands of democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, without whose support the road map is unlikely to win much recognition among the junta’s staunchest foreign critics.

Although Than Shwe has so far shown no willingness to give in to Suu Kyi’s appeal for an end to her detention, which was illegally extended in May, his decision to free Win Tin and a few other political prisoners may be a signal that some compromise is possible.

For her part, Suu Kyi may also be sending more conciliatory signals to the regime. After refusing to accept food deliveries for several weeks from mid-August, she started accepting them again after the authorities agreed to allow her more contact with her doctor and her lawyer.

Her lawyer, Kyi Win, told The Irrawaddy recently that Suu Kyi was planning to continue with her legal challenge to the junta’s decision to extend her house arrest, and that she recently sent a letter to the regime as part of her appeal. Although he declined to disclose the contents of the letter, he indicated that it showed she was willing to set aside some differences for the sake of progress in resolving certain issues.

Some political observers believe that Suu Kyi requested the release of political prisoners, including Win Tin, who has been held in Rangoon’s notorious Insein Prison for the past 19 years. Suu Kyi has repeatedly called on the regime to free the 79-year-old veteran dissident, and was no doubt delighted to hear of his release and his determination to continue with his struggle.

But even the ever-defiant Win Tin, a left-leaning political activist and former political editor of the Hanthawaddy newspaper, said that he bore no grudge against the regime. That was a smart move, as it keeps the door open for future dialogue that could lead to further prisoner releases.

Win Tin and the other political prisoners who were freed on Wednesday are all regarded as “hardliners” in Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD). Win Tin is particularly well-known internationally as Burma’s longest-serving political prisoner. His release would not have been possible without careful consultation with Than Shwe, who must have calculated that it would bring him some political advantage.

Now that Than Shwe has made his play, it is up to the international community to decide how to respond. Most notably, this raises the stakes for UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who has been contemplating a return visit to Burma sometime later this year.

Ban’s last trip to the country in May was a desperate bid to break the deadlock over the regime’s refusal to allow international aid workers into the country in the wake of Cyclone Nargis. He succeeded in winning some degree of cooperation from the junta, but efforts to end the country’s longstanding political impasse were put on the backburner. If he returns, he will have to address some of the political issues that have had such a devastating effect on the country over the past two decades.

On the face of it, Than Shwe’s decision to release a handful of political prisoners should make Ban’s job easier, as it can be held up as evidence of progress. But just as no one was particularly impressed by his deal with the junta in May, which brought limited benefits to ordinary people but won no significant guarantees from the regime, critics are likely to decry any sign that Ban is prepared to settle for token gestures instead of insisting on real concessions.

This means that the UN chief may be forced to push for nothing less than the release of Suu Kyi. Some pundits suggest that there is a real possibility that Than Shwe might even accept this demand, if the NLD and the regime can reach some sort of agreement on the upcoming election and amendments to the new constitution.

Such a development would make the road map more inclusive and more credible at home and abroad, but don’t hold your breath waiting for it to happen. Former senior intelligence officers who have worked with Than Shwe say that he is just up to his old tricks, and isn’t likely to give in to any demands as long as he can string the UN along with empty promises and misleading signs of “progress.”

However this plays out, it is obvious that Burma’s paramount leader is under intense pressure. Than Shwe does not make any move lightly, and now that he has released a handful of political prisoners, he will be watching the world’s reaction carefully before he decides if it’s necessary to take any further risks.

The greatest mistake the world could make right now is to give Than Shwe any undeserved credit for his latest move. Only when he sees that the international community is serious about demanding real progress will he even consider releasing Suu Kyi and other political prisoners.