Burmese Try to Anticipate Junta’s Next Election Move

By WAI MOE

As 2008 approaches its end, there is growing speculation about the forthcoming 2010 election in Rangoon and other cities around Burma, despite the fact that the country’s ruling junta has yet to announce any details about when precisely it will be held.

So far, the junta has not issued any decrees relating to the election, although some government officials and members of the military-backed mass organization, the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), have suggested that an election law could be promulgated by the end of this year or early next year.

In a speech delivered at the closing ceremony of the USDA’s 15th annual meeting, held last week, Snr-Gen Than Shwe, chairman of the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), expressed confidence that the election would go according to plan, but offered no specifics.

“The most crucial step for democratic transition has been implemented successfully due largely to the public support,” Than Shwe said, referring to a referendum held in May on a constitution that the regime took 14 years to draft.

He added that “plans are well under way to see to the remaining steps, including the 2010 transition work program.”

According to political observers in Rangoon who spoke to The Irrawaddy recently, however, the junta is in no hurry to set a date for the upcoming election, which would be officially announced in a decree signed by Than Shwe.

“I heard from authorities that the election law will be announced next June,” said Ohn Maung, a veteran politician in Rangoon.

Political analysts based in Burma and abroad said they thought the junta would surprise people by announcing the election law and timetable at an unexpected time. They added that the campaign period would likely be much shorter than in 1990, when the military-backed party lost by a landslide.

One Burmese scholar suggested that the junta might follow the example of Singapore, where political parties get just three weeks to campaign for elections. In 1990, the campaign period was 90 days, and the timetable of the election was announced more than a year before it was held.

Analysts said that the SPDC would also take other steps to ensure that the outcome of the 1990 election is not repeated in 2010, including a requirement that parties participating in the election must contest at least half of the electoral seats. In 1990, any party that could field candidates for three electoral seats was entitled to run.

Even though the election law and date have not yet been officially announced, the authorities and USDA leaders are already preparing for the election, sources in Burma said.

Meanwhile, the regime is pushing to complete preparations for voter registration. On Thursday, the state-run New Light of Myanmar reported that Maj-Gen Saw Lwin, the minister for immigration and population, urged officials “to make efforts for timely completion of work for issuing Citizenship Scrutiny Cards.”

The SPDC is also taking measures to ensure that it has enough money to cover the cost of a carefully orchestrated election.

According to a source close to the USDA, Minister of Industry (1) Aung Thaung, who is in charge of the USDA in Mandalay Division, recently held an auction of government-seized cars in Mandalay to raise funds for the election.

The junta has also recently called for the privatization of more than 30 state enterprises. Observers in Rangoon said that the privatization call could be part of the junta’s fund-raising for the election.

“Top ruling generals are looking for alternative sources of election funding, because they don’t want to touch government reserves at a time when the global financial meltdown is weakening the domestic economy,” said a researcher in Rangoon.

Observers said that, unlike in 1990, the junta would not back a particular party in the forthcoming election, but would instead rely on the USDA, which was formed by Than Shwe in 1993, to deliver a more favorable outcome.
Meanwhile, Burma’s opposition groups are also trying to prepare for the 2010 election. The National League for Democracy (NLD), the victor in 1990, has been holding regular executive meetings to discuss the 2010 election. The party has also been meeting with ethnic parties to trade perspective on the election.

Khin Maung Swe, an NLD executive member, said the party has not yet declared whether it will participate in the election, adding that the decision would depend on the circumstances.

In a statement released on September 22, the party called for changes to the junta-backed constitution within six months. Burma’s police chief, Brig-Gen Khin Yee, reportedly called on the NLD to withdraw the statement, but the party refused.