Reading Than Shwe's Disturbed Mind

By AUNG ZAW

The heavy sentences handed down to leading democracy activists in Burma have received widespread condemnation. But they may be just the beginning of a large-scale crackdown in Burma as junta leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe silences his critics by putting them behind bars in the run-up to the 2010 election.

Whether a sign of strength or weakness, the crackdown is certainly an indication of Than Shwe's determination to show critics that he will wipe out any dissent that he sees as a threat in the way of the election.

However one interprets the totally disproportionate sentences handed down to those who dared question his leadership, reading Than Shwe's mind is a difficult task. Even his senior officers admit as much.

Dissidents such as Min Ko Naing, Min Zeya, and Jimmy felt the full fury of the general after reportedly refusing to recognize his plans for the 2010 election. Sources say that Than Shwe assigned officials over the past year to sound out the opinions of detained activists on the 2010 election and the referendum held in May. Many rejected both.

Regime opponents are convinced that the crackdown could escalate, saying the junta has drawn up a list of dissidents to be imprisoned, including members of the National League for Democracy (NLD). Than Shwe wants to make sure that all dissidents are either under house arrest or in prison at the time of the 2010 election.

Not content with imprisoning his opponents, Than Shwe appears to be trying to break their morale by psychological means. Although most of the accused dissidents were tried in Rangoon's Insein Prison, they were then separated and sent to remote prisons, far from families and friends.

It is quite possible that the cruel order to commit his critics to such isolation came directly from Than Shwe, a former psychological warfare officer, and his inner circle of hard-line ministers. Regime sources say that the list of activists still facing arrest includes the location of prisons where they are destined to be held.

The irony is that, by cracking down so savagely on dissent, Than Shwe has again managed to direct the international spotlight on Burma, after a long period in which the country all but disappeared from the radar. Once again, the Burmese regime is roundly condemned in Western capitals.

The spotlight is not likely to be trained for long on Naypyidaw, however. Than Shwe plays for time, knowing that international players are tired of Burma's political stalemate.

He is fully aware that some pundits are saying that a constitution and an election are better than none.

A general election will undoubtedly be held in 2010, a Western diplomat in Burma told me recently. Like the May referendum, however, it will be rigged to make sure Than Shwe's cronies and sympathizers win.

Than Shwe accepts that critics and governments in the West won't recognize the 2010 election outcome. But he's also aware that regime apologists, opportunists, Burma watchers, activists and some confused policy makers have been holding meetings in Washington, Brussels and Bangkok, at which the 2010 election dominated the agendas.

Than Shwe is sure to have noticed that some pundits even make no distinction between his regime and Burma's democracy movement¬ between oppressor and the oppressed.

Than Shwe also knows that the opposition movement in exile is fragmented, solely dependant on funding and sometimes short of money. He knows that the ethnic ceasefire groups and remaining ethnic armies are weak and lacking in strategy.

Than Shwe and his regime, on the other hand, grow rich on the proceeds from natural gas sales, money that buys them increasing quantities of arms from China and Russia. The uncritical support of Burma's powerful neighbors increases Than Shwe's feeling of unchallenged power.

Where does the UN stand in this scenario? Than Shwe knows that this is perhaps the time to lay the groundwork for another visit by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, but he shows no interest in meeting the UN chief.

Ban can anyway only expect lectures on Burma's long and complex political history, the planned election, ethnic conflict and disunity and, of course, the need for the army to retain a central role. If Ban is prepared to listen to long monologues along these lines he will be a welcome guest of Than Shwe in Naypyidaw.

Recently, Than Shwe shrewdly extended an invitation to UN special envoy Ibrahim Gambari to revisit Burma. But diplomatic sources told me that Gambari is now quietly contemplating leaving his post, although no confirmation has yet been given.

The UN may start looking for someone from Southeast Asia to take Gambari's place. Than Shwe calculated well that the more visits Gambari makes to Burma the greater the cost to the envoy's credibility.

In the knowledge that time is running out for him, an aging Than Shwe has become paranoid even though his mind is still sharp. He is aware of the restlessness of some military officers who are unhappy with the way he is running the country. The memory of past purges haunts him and probably gives him sleepless nights.

It would be very interesting to know the diagnosis of the Singapore doctors who examined Than Shwe a few years ago. Although unconfirmed reports suggested that the paramount leader suffered from cancer and hypertension, I'd bet that what the doctors did not dare to disclose to Than Shwe is that he is clinically insane.