Ban Tries to Avoid a Fruitless Visit

By KYAW ZWA MOE

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is clearly worried about his next trip to Burma. The reason: he doesn’t want to visit the generals and end up like his UN envoys—coming home without any tangible political progress.

Ban expressed his doubts this week about his tentatively scheduled trip in December in a press conference at UN headquarters in New York. He hopes to go to Burma to kick off a dialogue between the military regime and opposition groups and to secure the release of all political prisoners, including pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

But before he goes, Ban is clearly signaling Snr-Gen Than Shwe: You have to agree to a political concession.
“As to my visit, when I said I will be personally engaged, that meant that I would be willing to pay a return visit to Myanmar [Burma] at an appropriate time,” Ban said. “But you should also know that without any tangible or very favorable results to be achieved, I may not be in a position to visit Myanmar without any expectations."
Ban is right to suspect the generals won’t pay any attention to the usual UN proposals for democratic reform. For his visit to take place, he clearly needs a signal from the junta in Naypyidaw that it is ready to make some concessions, to guarantee he can leave with some “tangible results.”

Real political dialogue is the best means to resolve the country’s political issues and the release of all political prisoners is essential to build confidence between the two sides for a meaningful dialogue.

Late last month, the regime released a handful of political prisoners among a government amnesty for 9,002 prisoners. But the number of political prisoners in Burma has nearly doubled, according to the Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (Burma).

“By nearly doubling the number of political prisoners, the Burmese regime is directly defying the United Nations, including the UN Security Council,” said a joint statement by the human rights group and the US Campaign for Burma based in Washington DC.

If Ban goes to Burma without a guarantee of some concrete political breakthroughs, he will further jeopardize the credibility of the UN. Many UN envoys, including the current special envoy to Burma, Ibrahim Gambari, have repeatedly fallen victim to the general’s manipulation for their own purposes.

By signaling the regime that he will visit only if they agree to some of the UN-mandated changes, Ban is taking a tougher stand.

If the junta fails to come up with some compromises before his visit, Ban will be in a better position to go back to the Security Council and seek new measures to achieve UN-mandated goals.

As a result, the generals may face even more pressure. Ban is exercising tactical diplomacy, putting pressure on the junta prior to his visit. Nyan Win, a spokesperson of Suu Kyi’s opposition National League for Democracy, called Ban’s move “right.”

But the question is what more can Ban and the Security Council do? In October 2007, the council approved a presidential statement on Burma, calling for the release of political prisoners. Anything stronger would require the approval of permanent members China and Russia, two staunch Burma supporters, who are likely to baulk.

In the past two decades, Burma has become a diplomatic graveyard, running through the previous seven UN special envoys to Burma.

What will play out in the coming weeks is an effort by Ban to play the best card he has and to avoid another frustrating, fruitless trip to a government that has repeatedly shown it has no regard for world opinion.